The IUMI 2025 report shows a steady market but the path ahead will reward insurers who truly understand vessel condition.
By Frank Andersen, Partnerships Manager, Idwal
The latest IUMI Global Marine Insurance Report (2025) makes for a measured but telling read. After several years of relative stability, the global marine insurance market is showing the early signs of softening, even as risk complexity continues to rise. For hull and P&I underwriters, that combination will test how well technical insight and data discipline are applied in pricing and portfolio management.
A steady market - with tension beneath the surface
Overall marine premiums grew by just 1.5% in 2024 to USD 39.9 billion, according to IUMI. The hull segment, which represents about a quarter of total global marine premiums, rose modestly by 3.5% to USD 9.67 billion. On the surface, that suggests resilience. Yet the underlying picture is less comfortable: claims inflation is mounting, fleets are ageing, and cost pressures are eroding margins.
IUMI’s data shows that European hull loss ratios remain broadly stable, but cost increases in steel, labour, and parts, captured in the updated IUMI Hull Inflation Index, is pushing average claim costs steadily upward. Meanwhile, delayed scrapping has led to an “age bulge” across key segments, increasing the probability of machinery and fire incidents; what IUMI calls the Silver Tsunami of hull claims.
These factors point to a subtle but important shift: even where headline loss ratios look stable, the margin for underwriting error is narrowing. The next few years are likely to reward underwriters who can distinguish not just between fleets, but within them - identifying the genuine condition differentials that drive exposure.
P&I: low volatility, uncertain horizon
The P&I picture is mixed. After an unusually quiet 2022 in terms of pool claims, activity normalised in 2023 and 2024, though still below historic averages. The Dali incident looks set to dominate the coming claim cycle, but it’s too early for a definitive assessment. Mutual premiums within the International Group rose by around 3%, reflecting measured rate discipline.
What stands out is the structural stability of P&I despite global shocks. Yet as vessels grow larger and more complex, and as new fuels and digital systems introduce different failure modes, the traditional risk models are being stretched. For the mutual system, understanding how technical condition translates into operational reliability will be increasingly critical, particularly as environmental liabilities become more tightly regulated.
Reading the hull signals
IUMI identifies several forces shaping the hull market:
- Overcapacity among MGAs and follow markets, with early signs of softening rates in 2024.
- Fleet ageing, with delayed scrapping and longer service life driving more attritional machinery claims.
- Technological change, as new fuels, 3D-printed components, and alternative propulsion introduce new risk profiles.
- Cost inflation, which is directly raising the probability of constructive total losses.
For underwriters, this is a moment that demands granularity. If every vessel over ten years old is treated equally on paper, the portfolio’s true exposure will be masked. Condition differentials, between ships of the same class, type, and age, matter more than ever.
The role of independent condition insight
This is where independent inspection and condition data can make a difference. Objective vessel grading allows risk professionals to separate well-maintained assets from those that may carry unseen exposure. That in turn helps to sustain underwriting discipline, even when market cycles soften.
At Idwal, we’ve seen insurers, financiers, and asset managers using standardised vessel condition information to support a more transparent view of technical quality. The benefit is twofold: better differentiation of risk and stronger engagement between owners and underwriters about how that risk can be improved.
The IUMI report reinforces this direction - implicitly calling for a tighter link between asset condition, claims experience, and premium adequacy. As cost increases continues and machinery incidents trend upward, insurers who can demonstrate evidence-based differentiation will be best positioned to protect margin without resorting to blanket rate increases.
Navigating the next cycle
The IUMI outlook concludes that 2025 will bring a delicate balance: solid capital, relatively benign claim frequency, but rising severity and technical complexity. Hull and P&I lines face a “long tail” of risk shaped by decarbonisation, automation, and macroeconomic volatility.
For underwriters, financiers and owners alike, clarity is the new currency. Better visibility of vessel condition and maintenance quality enables more accurate pricing, fewer surprises, and fairer treatment across the market.
As the IUMI report shows, the fundamentals of marine insurance remain strong but precision in understanding and pricing risk will define the next phase. With consistent, independent condition intelligence, the industry can face those headwinds with greater confidence and control.
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